By Ebrima Mbaye
The University of The Gambia Pan-African Students’ Association (UTG-PANASA) has warned starkly about the worsening political crisis in Guinea-Bissau, urging regional and international bodies to intervene swiftly to avert further chaos in the West African nation.
In a strongly worded statement released on March 4, 2025, UTG-PANASA labeled elections “the litmus test of a democratic system,” emphasizing that a credible electoral process is critical to preserving peace and stability. The group cautioned that any efforts to subvert democracy could plunge Guinea-Bissau into civil unrest and deeper political turmoil.
A constitutional dispute over President Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s tenure is at the heart of the crisis. Opposition parties, led by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), assert that Embaló’s term expired on February 27, 2025. However, his allies argue that he remains the legitimate leader until fresh elections are held or a legal decision clarifies the matter.
“Refusing to hold elections has its own consequences and thus could trigger violence and other insurgencies,” UTG-PANASA warned, pointing to Guinea-Bissau’s fragile democratic institutions and its history of coups and instability. The country has seen at least nine coups or attempted coups since its independence from Portugal in 1974.
The current deadlock stems from Embaló’s controversial 2019 election win, which the opposition decried as rigged. A subsequent legal challenge fizzled out amid allegations of judicial meddling, leaving tensions simmering. The situation worsened in December 2023 when Embaló dissolved the opposition-dominated parliament, claiming it thwarted an “attempted coup” after clashes between security forces. Critics, however, saw it as a power grab.
The PAIGC-led coalition’s victory in the June 2023 legislative elections offered hope for change. However, the government’s refusal to acknowledge their majority—and the cancellation of planned November 2024 parliamentary elections—further fueled discontent.
UTG-PANASA accused Embaló of risking mass protests and regional instability, noting that his actions contradicted his anti-coup rhetoric as ECOWAS chairman. The group highlighted his recent expulsion of a UNOWAS mediation mission as evidence of his unwillingness to seek a peaceful resolution.
Calling for urgent action, UTG-PANASA appealed to the African Union (AU), ECOWAS, civil society, and the international community to press for a democratic solution. “Most African leaders have cherished self-perpetuation in power; this has led to numerous coup d’états,” the statement read, underscoring the broader threat to governance across the continent.
The association urged Embaló to uphold democratic norms, allow free elections, and respect citizens’ political rights. It concluded with a plea for African leaders to prioritize the people’s will, warning that Guinea-Bissau’s crisis could spiral into violence without swift intervention.
As the standoff continues, the world is watching to see whether elections, judicial clarity, or regional pressure will resolve the impasse—or if Guinea-Bissau’s troubled history of instability will repeat itself.
