By: Sulayman Darboe
MA Transnational Governance
Florence School of Transnational Governance
European University Institute
Will the current geopolitical shifts and what appears as a distortion of international liberal and global trade orders disadvantage Africa following the world’s ‘one man soldier’s 2.0 victory’? The recent Trump elections and his sudden isolationist, protectionist and transactional approaches to US foreign policy has made regional blocs restless with many running helter-skelter devising strategies to prevent being disadvantaged through retaliatory measures. Considering these realities, what is the fate of Africa in an arguable ‘new world order’ dramatically shaped by Trump? Is she a protagonist or a continued victim of circumstance? These are thought-provoking questions often asked by most commentators.
Without doubt, the media fraternity would agree with me that if the word ‘retaliate’ was a man, he would have won a novel prize for being the most used term by states and blocs as they relate with each other. Survival of the fittest is an enemy to the idea of cooperation but the continuous usage of the term ‘retaliate’ shows how important survival is to states and regional blocs. But what is the fate of the unfit in the clash of the so-called fittest? The term ‘retaliate’ is fatally used in trade wars as in the case of China and the US on tariffs. It is also used in legal context as remarked by US’s Vice President Vence against EU’s bid to regulate Artificial Intelligence. However, retaliatory measures against every protectionist and isolationist agendas brings into light the question of “power”. Either hard or soft, retaliation is only possible with power. Those that have power are those who think of retaliation. It can be economic or political power. It can also take other forms. At a time when the so-called great powers are engaged in war of words, with each promising to retaliate should the other try to disadvantage, what should be the interest of Africa? Does she have the political and economic power to retaliate against critical policy decisions such as trump’s anti-migration policies? While there exist no-one-size-fits-all explication to the above, the political and economic power that make regional blocs and specific countries such as China and the United States think of retaliation, is arguably limited with Africa. The question to ask therefore is: what can Africa do to accumulate both economic and political power that can make her both protective and meaningfully collaborative as an actor in the international system with potentials to survive policy decisions and outcomes of the recent Trump protectionist and isolationist policies, especially around migration. Many commentators see President Trump as being transactional but in contrast, I see him as an intelligent transactional leader who finds his foreign policy direction by causing chaos. While this could be argued, what remains clear is his influence and ability to evidently make every big gun in the international system restless with each thinking of its survival. For example, he seemingly ignites trade war on tariffs with China, demoralized European democracy, illusionary plan on annexing Canada, South Africa Aids cut, plans on Palestine and Israel conflict, and his aggressive stance to end Russia war among others. Considering the pressures each of these realities exert on the international system which has seemingly confused sister superpowers, what exactly is in the interest of Africa? Are all hopes lost! What should the new African Union leadership do? The new African Union leadership can leverage on the following suggestive recommendations to face the geopolitical realities of our time not as a toothless bulldog or a mere receiver of outcomes of global policy decisions but as a development stakeholder in action who is interested in Africa’s long-term economic and political survival, in the ever-growing interest and power-driven international system.
CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT AND EMPLOYMENT OF YOUTH:
One policy issue used as a leverage during Trumps campaign which has bearing on Africa is migration. Arguably, one could state that his anti-migration stance has contributed towards his victory. Therefore, new AU leadership should focus on how to change the narratives of African youth looking outward, instead of inward. Young people have both economic and political power which need to be harnessed. The exploitation and accumulation of these individual youth powers are what can help result in the total economic and political power the continent needs to participate in the international system. Creating empowerment and employability for the youth as promised by the foundational principles of the Union and the 2063 agenda, is a sustainable strategy to make youth look inward rather than being continuous victims of deportations. The saying that Africa is the future which has recently proliferated discussions even in global stages is not a fantasy. This is not to give a skeleton optimism and a shred light to the continent. It is guided by data which indicates that the continent has a growing young population. For example, According to Ichikowitz foundation African Youth Survey 2020, Africa holds the World’s youngest population with 70% of the youth living in sub-Saharan Africa and under 30 years of age. In addition, the same survey projected that by 2050, African youth are expected to account for a third of the world’s youth population. But is there a correlation between having a youth population and economic growth that guarantees economic and political power? There is absolutely no correlation between the two without investing in the youth because an unempowered youth cannot offer anything meaningful to meet the development priorities of the region. Therefore, despite widespread enthusiasm that the region houses the world’s youngest population, unless this population is made productive, it only provides empty hope.
In contrast to naysayers point of views, African youth are hungry to work. They are willing to be entrepreneurs, learn skills or art so laziness and idleness are contradictory features of the youth including those daily married to the streets and ghettos across various African countries. They are victims of policy failures, inept leadership and misplaced governance priorities often in disarray. The new African Union leadership must act within its mandate to make African youth busy. They should be meaningfully involved in the critical sectors of the economy but first giving priorities to what Africa has. The land and the sea must be exploited sustainably with the right regulations. As of 2020, Africa had around 1173 million hectares of agricultural land which corresponds to 40% of the total land area of the region according to Statista. Both agriculture and fishing sectors should be sustainably exploited to meet domestic consumption and export demands for foreign exchange earnings. Youth-led initiatives already in place should be invested with capital to ambitiously take part in these activities.
In addition, more attention should be given to education and skill development as alternative youth empowerment strategies. The new AU leadership should strive towards the complete decolonization of African education sectors by tailoring curriculums to reflect African realities. The curriculums should promote skills and talents education, both of which should be regulated with a domestic market base that would ensure their outputs are consumed domestically to generate income. The era of students spending years drawing Cockroaches and Agama lizards only aggravates poverty and suffering and further make African minds deficient to respond to societal realities through solutions. Children and youth should be taught these realities to become responsive agents equipped to provide meaningful solutions to societal problems.
URGENT RESPONSE TO UNRESOLVED CONFLICTS IN THE REGION
For many decades now, peace, which is instrumental for humanity and the realization of man’s aggregate potential, has either been temporal or accidental for some communities and countries in Africa. Sadly, a larger number of the areas in conflict are resource rich. This unfortunate reality has shattered many dreams, many hopes and many minds that could lead to the region’s desire to achieve socio-economic power. The new African Union leadership should therefore swiftly prioritize and respond to the ongoing conflicts in the region which has cost many innocent lives. The senseless killing by the two Sudanese Military faction who are both myopic to realize the impact of their action on the lives of beautiful young lives and helpless elderly should be addressed. The powerful negotiation table should be explored again and again and again as no more life deserves to be claimed. This war should end with every means necessary as the fatalities it brings are gross. According to The Africa Center for strategic studies, the war has already led to 6 million -cross-border displacement. The recent USAID cut has threatened humanitarian provisions. Furthermore, the rebel group MFDC which is walking freely on water in Congo by violating both the African Charter on Human and Peoples Right and various international laws should be checked. In all these wars, human lives are lost in gruesome manners. The African standby force should be utilized in line with existing laws to restore peace in these conflicting areas should negotiations fail.
END ENDEMIC CORRUPTION IN THE REGION
Sustained economic growth in the continent if the root causes of corruption are not addressed. The region’s drive to accumulate economic and political power can never be realized without corruption being checked. Therefore, the new leadership should advocate for the demise of corruption, especially in government bureaucracies. This is necessary because it has widened inequalities and killed many people who are denied access to services and resources that would have saved their lives. Many public hospitals are turned graveyards with little or no drugs. Furthermore, it has devasted productive sectors of the economy including agriculture and fishing which should ensure the realization of the continent’s economic power. In fact, some thieves who stole Corona and Ebola funds are praying for another major outbreak to retake the populations at ransom for their selfish growth. Although, anti-corruption campaigners have registered sluggish progress to their fight, the path is still rocky with many overlapping of interests.
Corruption has made African youth hopeless to an extent many choose to migrate. Recently, a survey conducted in 16 African nations revealed that nearly 60% of youth want to leave their countries because of unchecked corruption. According to Jose Ugaz of Transparency International, while corrupt individuals with political power enjoy a lavish life, millions of Africans are deprived of their basic needs like food, health, education, housing, access to clean water and sanitation. In addition, African development Bank highlights that “corruption drains an estimated 10 billion Dollars annually from African economies diverting crucial resources from healthcare education and infrastructure development. This illicit financial flow undermines economic growth and erodes public trust in institutions on the continent. The restoration of the lost public trust, especially with respect to the youth, should therefore be a priority for the new leadership. To do this, the new African union leadership should advocate and practice corrupt-free leadership to serve as an example for the heads of state to take crucial reforms on anti-corruption in their countries. There should be special emphasis on the need for the Heads of States to establish anti-corruption commissions, where they don’t exist, and be guaranteed independence to operate. Furthermore, police and judicial corruption should be checked with strong political will. Finally, whistle blowers should be protected legally. Addressing corruption will enhance accountability and transparency which are bedrocks for the development of economic and political powers
LEARNING AND GROWING THROUGH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL POLICY TRANSFER
Policy transfers scholars such as Dolowitz and Mars, Stone, Evans and Davies, Ousmane and others have all agreed that policy transfer is a way one political setting can learn from the polices, institutions and administrative arrangements of another. Such transfers ensure knowledge and tool sharing. Can Africa’s economic growth be realized and sustained without the needed capacity and tool that can turn the current economic power in raw form into a refined economic and political power? This will be difficult to achieve. Africa’s drive to accumulate sustained economic and political growth cannot be done in isolation. It requires the continent to draw experiences from successful economic models and policies that work well for other continents by putting into consideration local realities. For example, knowledge-drawing from these successful policies should include those from the emerged and emerging economies. It is often argued that part of the reasons why most policy transfer initiatives fail in Africa is because of the nature of policies and the transfer process and whether these policies reflect the local realities of African societies. Therefore, if effectively done, learning from either internally or externally has the potential of putting the continent on the right economic trajectory without undermining culture, norms, values and dignity or the region.
Earlier in the text, I highlighted how corruption undermines development in Africa. It does not only disrupt delivery of services, but it makes governance institutions and bureaucracies weak and inefficient. Learning from regions and countries such as Singapore could therefore help address endemic corruption in Africa. Furthermore, policy transfer among African states could promote the African Union’s drive to integrate African economies which will guarantee economic growth. Should Africa look inward and outward to learn from others about what worked for them, she could register economic growth.
ADOPTING THE SCHENGEN MODEL
The Schengen Model ensures economic development for member states. It ensures smooth movement of people, goods and services. It also comes with regulatory and security cooperations among others. Already, the model guarantees free movement of more than 450 million EU citizens making labor easily available. In Africa, such movements are either heavily restricted or limited. This is often caused by factors such as corruption, absence of regulatory cooperation mechanisms, insecurities and language barriers among others. These challenges have undermined the drive to achieve sustained economic growth and integration. The Africa Free Continental Trade Agreements has not done enough to close this gap. Therefore, the new leadership should learn the ideals of the Schengen Model which has resulted in substantial economic growth for member states. It is important to recall that free movement of goods and services remains a first generational leadership call in Africa. The Schengen model which guarantees this, resonates with the strong aspirations of the continent’s first generational leaders especially those who founded the organization of the African Union later renamed African Union. Nkrumah, for example, was smart to understand the utilities such integration comes with. Even though he had mostly echoed this through decolonial lenses, if his desire for a borderless and integrated economy is achieved, the continent would have sustained economic growth but only if corruption is checked. The new African union leadership should work towards learning from the success of the Schengen model as this would guarantee the continent’s desire to attain economic power in refined form.
CONCLUSION
The recent geopolitical shifts should be of interest to Africa as a regional actor in the international system. However, what should be of a bigger interest is to amplify regional drive to achieve sustained economic and political growth. Accumulating economic and political power is in her survival. While the continent remains critical to the survival of the world, gaps in its developments and its inability to respond to the needs of her people absolutely make her weak to stand tall in the international system. Therefore, the internal challenges of the continent should be checked first. To do this, the new African Union leadership should move towards youth empowerment through education, skill and talent development and should further ensure domestic markets exist for them. In addition, peace should be prioritized. The existing conflicts between MFDC and Congo and the South Sudanese conflict which are both resource-rich areas should be addressed urgently. Furthermore, corruption which has already cost the continent should be aggressively addressed with anti-corruption measures. The AU leadership and specific countries should embrace policy transfer to learn from other countries because Africa cannot do it alone. Finally, the best success that could ever be achieved by any African Union leadership is to ensure free movement of labor, goods and services. The AU leadership should therefore embrace the Schengen Model. These recommendations, if employed, would ensure the continent accumulates economic and political power to meaningfully participate in international politics while guaranteeing a decent standard of living.
