By: Yankuba Manneh
In a candid appearance on the digital podcast Dialectic Space, former Gambian journalist Nanama Keita made a stark prediction: the opposition United Democratic Party (UDP), led by veteran lawyer Ousainou Darboe, will lose to incumbent President Adama Barrow and his National People’s Party (NPP) in the upcoming 2026 presidential election.
Keita, once a sports editor at the now-defunct Daily Observer and now a US-based social / Political commentator, explained his defection from the UDP to the emerging Unite Movement for Change (UMC), led by Kanifing Municipal Council Mayor Talib Ahmed Bensouda. “I hold fundamental ideological differences with the UDP,” Keita said. “Darboe is not a winnable candidate in the current political climate.”
Despite acknowledging Darboe’s long-standing sacrifices for democracy since 1996 – including his role in opposing former dictator Yahya Jammeh – Keita argued that victory in Gambian elections hinges not just on party loyalists but on “undecided voters.” Many of these, he claimed, seek fresh leadership beyond Darboe.
The UDP has faced significant internal turmoil in recent months. In late 2025, Mayor Bensouda and several senior members, including Tombong Saidy, resigned amid a leadership contest for the party’s flagbearer.
Bensouda briefly applied but withdrew, citing unfair treatment and cyberbullying, before launching the UMC as a grassroots movement focused on unity, integrity, and transformation. Keita, a vocal supporter of Bensouda’s potential 2026 bid, praised the UMC as a vehicle for generational change.
Keita highlighted the UDP’s strengths – its massive base, nationwide structures, and popularity – but criticized persistent “internal issues at the top,” including power concentration around the party leader. He warned of a potential “deep leadership crisis” post-2026 defeat, blaming influential “two percenters” within the ranks who prioritize personal agendas.
On opposition unity, Keita was blunt: forming a coalition without the UDP would be “difficult, if not impossible.” Yet he stressed the need for a unified front to oust Barrow, cautioning that conditions differ vastly from the 2016 coalition that toppled Jammeh. Past betrayals and what he called “political prostitutionism” – opportunistic party-switching – could hinder efforts.
Responding to Keita’s remarks, Saikou Camara, UDP’s Head of Media and Communications, downplayed their significance. “Such opinionated remarks aren’t our party’s main focus,” Camara said. “We respect every opinion, but our priority is Adama Barrow and the NPP. The country is not heading in the right direction – Barrow is mismanaging state affairs, with huge costs borne by farmers, women, and youth.”
Camara reaffirmed the UDP’s openness to alliances, stating the party “respects and values every political actor in the opposition.”
As Gambia approaches the December 2026 polls, the opposition remains fragmented. President Barrow seeks a third term amid criticism over economic challenges and unfulfilled promises from the 2016 coalition. Darboe, confirmed as UDP flagbearer after internal selections, positions the election as a “rescue operation” for the nation. Meanwhile, Bensouda’s UMC is gaining momentum among youth, recently submitting its registration documents to the Independent Electoral Commission.
Keita’s bold forecast, some political analysts believe, underscores deepening divisions, raising questions about whether a divided opposition will hand Barrow another victory – or if new movements like UMC can reshape the landscape.
