The Centre for Policy, Research and Strategic Studies (CEPRASS) today released a nationwide opinion poll conducted in November 2025, offering early insights into voter preferences for the December 2026 presidential election. The survey, which included emerging political entities, has drawn measured responses from two key opposition groups: the established United Democratic Party (UDP) and the newly formed United Movement for Change (UNITE).
The UDP, a longstanding major opposition force, issued a statement acknowledging the poll while emphasizing that surveys do not dictate electoral results. “We respect the effort, process, and intent behind such research,” the UDP Media and Communications Team said, “and we recognize the role that data and opinion polling play in informing public debate and political strategy.”
Describing itself as a party committed to evidence-based engagement, the UDP noted it would carefully analyze the findings to refine its campaign, messaging, and voter outreach. However, the party cautioned against over-reliance on polls, stressing a core democratic principle: “Opinion polls do not determine election outcomes, voters do. Elections are decided at polling stations, by citizens exercising their constitutional right, not by projections or survey results.”
The statement highlighted precedents across Africa in which polls underestimated opposition momentum. It cited Malawi’s 2020 election, in which Dr. Lazarus Chakwera overcame predictions of defeat to win decisively, and Zambia’s 2021 contest, in which Hakainde Hichilema achieved a landslide victory despite polls predicting a close race. “Across Africa and beyond, political history consistently reminds us that polls can underestimate grassroots momentum, misread public sentiment, or fail to capture late shifts in voter behavior,” the UDP asserted.
The party expressed confidence in its grassroots approach, prioritizing direct citizen engagement, credible solutions to national challenges, and earning trust through integrity. “Our focus remains unchanged… As December approaches, we are confident that the final verdict will come not from opinion polls, but from the sovereign choice of the Gambian electorate,” the statement concluded.
In contrast, UNITEβofficially launched on October 5, 2025, under the leadership of Kanifing Mayor Talib Ahmed Bensoudaβadopted a more welcoming tone toward the data. The movement, which positions itself as a fresh alternative amid public dissatisfaction with the incumbent government, praised CEPRASS for including it despite its recent formation.
“UNITE welcomes the recently published survey… We firmly believe in evidence-based research and in the power of credible data to inform and guide national decision-making,” the group stated via spokesperson Kemo Bojang. The findings, it added, “reflect widespread public dissatisfaction and underscore the poor performance of the current government, while reaffirming our Movementβs conviction that the country urgently needs a credible alternative.”
UNITE described its ranking among major platforms just weeks after launch as “encouraging and humbling.” It views the poll not as definitive but as a tool for reflection and improvement. “For UNITE, data is not something to fear or dismiss; it is something to engage with honestly and responsibly,” the statement read.
Since the survey, UNITE reported launching nationwide chapters and mobilizing tens of thousands of Gambians seeking change. The movement pledged to remain an inclusive platform and to track progress through future polls. “We remain fully committed to listening to the people, learning from credible research, and translating data into action that delivers real and lasting change for all Gambians,” it affirmed.
The CEPRASS poll arrives amid a fragmented opposition landscape and growing calls for unity to challenge the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) alliance, which some interpretations suggest leads in voting intentions. Both UDP and UNITE responses underscore the early stage of the campaign, with months remaining for shifts in momentum, coalitions, and voter mobilization ahead of the 2026 contest.
