By Dr. Lamin Keita
In an increasingly interconnected world, a single conflict can restructure global politics, disrupt economies, and redefine how wars are fought. The specific war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is not just another regional conflict in the Middle East. It is a crisis with worldwide consequences. From rising energy prices and interrupted global trade to the expansion of cyber warfare and the risk of a wider international confrontation, this conflict is transforming the balance of power and influencing the future of global security. Understanding this conflict’s impact is critical to grasping how modern wars can change the world far beyond the battlefield.
The February 28 conflict is significantly reshaping global politics, relationships, economics, and security. One of the most immediate consequences is a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East. The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and heavy strikes on Iranian infrastructure could destabilize the country’s political system, but may also build resilience among the citizens, as well as increase hatred for American interests in the region. More interestingly, such instability may weaken central authority and increase the influence of regional militias and proxy groups aligned with Iran. Simply because Iran sits at the center of several regional alliances, any internal fragmentation would easily spread instability across the Middle East, affecting countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria as we are experiencing currently. Another major impact is long-term global energy instability, as demonstrated in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict threatens the Strait of Hormuz, which is a narrow waterway through which roughly 20 % of the world’s oil supply passes. If Iran continues to disrupt shipping in this region for an extended period, global oil prices could predictably rise above $100–$150 per barrel. This would be a global economic calamity, with developing countries bearing the brunt of the economic burden. In the long run, this would inevitably lead to permanently higher energy prices, accelerate the transition to renewable energy, and encourage countries to develop new energy alliances and pipelines that bypass the Persian Gulf.
Thus, so far, the war also contributes to a more fragmented global economy because military tensions are already affecting shipping, aviation, tourism, and financial markets. As flights between Europe and Asia are rerouted to avoid conflict zones, shipping companies could redirect cargo around Africa, increasing costs and delays. These disruptions potentially accelerate trends toward deglobalization, regional supply chains, and higher inflation worldwide. Furthermore, the war highlights the growing role of cyber and artificial intelligence in modern warfare and justifies the end of dependence on spiritual mysticism. As states and companies face increasing cyberattacks, digital propaganda campaigns, and AI-assisted military targeting are becoming the modus operandi. Additionally, these developments suggest that future wars will rely heavily on technology and cyber capabilities, reshaping how major powers conduct conflict. In other words, it reflects ideas proposed by Samuel P. Huntington about the evolving nature of global conflicts and the strategic competition between civilizations.
There is a risk of a wider regional or even global war because groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon have already joined the conflict, and militias in Iraq and Syria could also join, while Gulf states hosting U.S. bases are increasingly under threat and attacks from Iran.
Notwithstanding regional countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s cautious responses to the Iranian attacks and their avoidance of immediate retaliation, this restraint may not last. However, their current position helps prevent rapid escalation, but it also leaves the situation highly unpredictable. If regional states ultimately choose to respond militarily or politically, it could significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict, potentially expanding it beyond its current scope and reshaping alliances and power balances across the Middle East. In the worst-case scenario, escalation could draw in larger powers such as Russia or China, turning the conflict into the largest Middle East war in decades.
Finally, there are possible ways this conflict could end. The most likely short-term outcome is a negotiated ceasefire that can be mediated by countries such as Qatar, Oman, Turkey, or Iraq, leading to renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program and providing firm assurance to Iran that it will not be further attacked. Another possibility is regime change or political collapse in Iran following the death of its leader, which could bring a new government willing to negotiate peace. Maybe difficult to attain within the short-term goal. The margin of error for such a regime change will be costly in terms of human and economic consequences. Alternatively, the conflict could develop into a long regional proxy war involving militias and allied groups across several countries. This will have fatal consequences for the entire Middle East and beyond. The most precarious scenario is the current major disruption of global oil supplies, which draws multiple nations into a broader international conflict—a dragnet that must be treated with caution.
