By Fatou Dahaba
Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs Hon. Seedy Keita on Friday laid The Gambia’s 2027 Budget before the National Assembly, unveiling a GMD56.94 billion revenue and grants plan designed to strengthen fiscal sustainability, widen the tax base and sustain economic momentum.
Presenting the estimates, Keita told lawmakers that the medium-term macroeconomic outlook remains broadly favorable despite heightened global uncertainty. The economy is projected to expand by 5.6 percent in 2027 and 5.8 percent in 2028, before moderating to around 5.0 percent over the medium term.
He said this growth path will be underpinned by the reprioritization of the Recovery Focused National Development Plan. Key drivers include higher agricultural and agro-processing output, stepped-up infrastructure investment, rising tourist arrivals and steady remittance inflows. Parallel efforts to expand electricity access and boost domestic power generation are also expected to support broader economic activity.
The fiscal framework centers on total projected revenue and grants of GMD56.94 billion in 2027, equivalent to 24.4 percent of gross domestic product. Domestic revenue is forecast at GMD37.39 billion, or 16 percent of GDP, while grants are projected at GMD19.54 billion, or 8.4 percent of GDP.
Tax revenue is expected to rise to GMD31.47 billion, a 16.5 percent increase from the 2026 budget. Keita attributed the rise to ongoing administrative reforms and measures to broaden the tax base, including the planned rollout of the Integrated Tax Administration System in the latter half of 2027.
Additional revenue measures include stricter enforcement of withholding tax on direct payments for project-related requirements, implementing the revised Gambia Investment and Export Promotion Agency (GIEPA) Act to eliminate company income tax exemptions, and enhancing third-party data matching and system linkages with ministries, departments, and agencies to improve compliance and audit enforcement. Excise collections, particularly from the telecommunications sector, are expected to improve significantly once revenue assurance measures and an electronic invoicing system are fully rolled out.
Non-tax revenue is projected at GMD5.92 billion, supported by digitalization of collections and reforms to convert state-owned enterprises from loss-making entities into dividend-paying institutions.
On the spending side, total government expenditure for 2027 is set at GMD59.24 billion, a 13.1 percent increase from the previous year. The plan allocates GMD33.93 billion to recurrent expenditure and GMD16.24 billion to capital expenditure and net lending. Keita explained that the higher outlay will largely cover settlement of expenditure arrears, rising debt service payments, financing of National Assembly elections and continued efforts to close infrastructure gaps. A government-financed solarisation project and other infrastructure investments will partly support capital spending.
Despite the increase in expenditure, the Government is targeting an overall fiscal deficit of 1.0 percent of GDP in 2027 for All Funds and 0.04 percent for Government Local Funds—unchanged from the previous budget. The Minister said this stance would sustain fiscal consolidation and help reduce public debt.
Public and publicly guaranteed debt is projected to decline to 66.2 percent of GDP in 2027. However, Keita cautioned that the budget remains exposed to risks including climate shocks, global conflicts, commodity price volatility and contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises.
He assured lawmakers that the Government would continue to monitor developments closely while safeguarding priority spending in agriculture, health, education and social welfare.
