By: Professor Alhagi Manta Drammeh (PGCERTHE, FHEA, FRSA, UK)
Whether we say it or not or whether we loke it or not, it is a reality that the Israeli war on Gaza after the 07 October HAMAS attack on Israel will change the geopolitical realities and dynamics of not the Middle East but the world at large.
Regionally, it has shocked both the Israeli military institutions and the people that HAMAS was able to inflict such a blow to such a powerful military in the region. Probably, it was the most serious blow Israel would suffer from her adversaries in the region. If the war is not contained, it may further escalate on the Israeli Lebanese border and deep into Iran. The Houthis in Yamen started to be a menace to ships navigating in the region.
On the Palestinian front, it has given more popularity to HAMAS leading to wider condemnation of Israel for what the Palestinians say to be crimes against humanity, war crimes and forced transfer of thousands of Palestinians within Gaza. Seemingly, HAMAS would be involved in the post-war reconstruction and political settlement between Palestine and Israel. It would be difficult for it outside the new political dispensation equation.
Israel has suffered causalities as a result of the war and popularity of the current government is diminishing according to observers. There maybe a snap election in Israel so that a new government would be installed. Israel has not been able so far to achieve its war objective. First, it has not yet dismantled the HAMAS military infrastructure. The tunnel network has become a nightmare for Israeli military strategists.
Second, Israel has not freed all the hostages capture by HAMAS. Therefore, it is most likely that Iseal would be forced to negotiate another ceasefire long or short with HAMAS to allow for the freeing of some hostages in exchange with freeing some Palestinian prisoners.
Internationally, Israel is increasingly being isolated for its disproportionate use of force in Gaza. The images of dead children and women and demolition of building and the displacement of thousands of Gazans have all created a new international public opinion largely sympathetic towards the plight of Palestinians. Furthermore, South African Government has asked the international court of Justice (ICJ) to see if the acts of Israel are tantamount to genocide against Palestinian people in Gaza. Soth African government claims that accts of Israel in Gaza are genocidal in character as they are intended to bring about the destruction of a substantial part of the national, , racial and ethnic group.
A Way Forward
History has taught us that no one can win a war. All are losers in a war and there is no winner. In the end warriors will go to the negotiation table. However ugly and nasty the first and second world wars were, they ended up at a negotiation table. There should be a two-state solution as agreed by the Security Council members and the General Assembly of the Unted Nations. The situation in Palestine should go beyond rhetoric to address the need for peace and stability.