By Edrissa Ken-Joof, Ph.D.
In 2016, The Gambia emerged as an unlikely beacon of hope when a fragile coalition of opposition parties toppled dictator Yahya Jammeh, ending his 22-year reign of terror. The victory of Adama Barrow, a businessman turned unity candidate, was hailed as a triumph for democracy in a region increasingly besieged by coups and autocrats. Yet nearly a decade later, that optimism has curdled into disillusionment. The Gambia’s Third Republic, born from a rare moment of national solidarity, now teeters on the edge of collapse—a cautionary tale of how coalition governments can unravel when partisan interests eclipse the common good.
The 2016 Experiment: A Coalition Built on Quicksand
The 2016 coalition’s promise was monumental: to dismantle Jammeh’s kleptocracy and rebuild institutions gutted by repression. Initially, it succeeded. Barrow’s administration restored press freedom, rejoined the Commonwealth, and launched a Truth Commission to address Jammeh-era atrocities. But cracks soon appeared. Barrow, who ran as an independent, quickly abandoned the coalition’s founding memorandum of understanding (MOU), sidelining allies like the United Democratic Party (UDP) and forming his own National People’s Party (NPP). By 2021, the coalition had fractured entirely, with Barrow winning re-election as an NPP candidate amid accusations of betraying the reform agenda. The parallels to today are stark. Barrow’s government now faces widespread criticism for corruption, stalled constitutional reforms, and a failure to prosecute Jammeh-era criminals. The Truth Commission’s recommendations—including a new constitution with term limits and accountability measures—were gutted by Barrow’s allies in 2024, revealing a leadership more invested in self-preservation than democratic renewal.
The Structural Rot: Why Coalitions Fail in The Gambia
The Gambia’s presidential system, enshrined in its 1997 constitution, concentrates power in the executive, creating a winner-takes-all dynamic that undermines coalition-building. Barrow’s NPP dominates the National Assembly, holding 31 of 53 seats, but relies on uneasy alliances with remnants of Jammeh’s APRC party to pass legislation. This marriage of convenience has alienated voters and fueled perceptions that Barrow is recycling the patronage networks Jammeh perfected—appointing loyalists to key posts while sidelining critics. The bureaucracy, still staffed by Jammeh-era holdovers, resists reforms that threaten their privileges. Meanwhile, civil society groups report that anti-corruption efforts have stalled, with the Anti-Corruption Commission lacking teeth and political will. Even the judiciary, once a bright spot, has faced recent scrutiny after journalists critical of Barrow were arrested under dubious charges.
2026: A Make-or-Break Moment
As The Gambia approaches its next elections, the question is not whether a coalition will form -it’s whether any coalition can survive. Three factors will shape the outcome:
- The Youth Surge: Inspired by Senegal’s election of 44-year-old Bassirou Diomaye Faye, Gambian youth are mobilizing. Social media buzzes with calls for fresh faces like entrepreneur to challenge Barrow. Yet these movements lack infrastructure and risk fragmentation without a unifying platform.
- The UDP’s Dilemma: The main opposition UDP, led by veteran Ousainou Darboe, remains popular but faces internal generational rifts. Younger members demand new leadership, while the old guard clings to power. If the UDP cannot modernize, it may cede ground to Barrow’s NPP or insurgent parties.
- Constitutional Chaos: The failure to adopt a new constitution – one that limits presidential terms and strengthens checks on power – leaves The Gambia vulnerable to another strongman. Barrow’s watered-down 2024 draft, which omits term limits and anti-corruption measures, has sparked protests. Without reform, the 2026 election could entrench one-party rule.
Lessons for a Fractured Democracy
The Gambia’s plight mirrors challenges seen in post-Apartheid South Africa and post-Marcos Philippines: how to dismantle systemic corruption while rebuilding trust in government. Here, three steps are urgent:
- Prioritize Institutional Reform: The Gambia must depoliticize the civil service, empower the judiciary, and implement the Truth Commission’s recommendations – including prosecuting Jammeh-era criminals through the new ECOWAS-backed tribunal.
- Embrace Grassroots Movements: Youth-led parties and civil society groups, which drove Senegal’s democratic shift, could inject vitality into Gambian politics – if given space to organize.
- Break the Presidential Stranglehold: A parliamentary system, as proposed in the scrapped 2020 constitution, would dilute executive power and incentivize coalition stability.
The world cannot afford to look away. The Gambia’s success – or failure – will again resonate across West Africa, where democratic backsliding has become endemic. As Barrow’s government dithers, the clock ticks toward 2026. The choice is clear: recommit to the coalition’s original promise of renewal, or risk becoming another footnote in the region’s spiral into autocracy.
Dr. Edrissa Ken-Joof, a Gambian based in the United States of America, is a political analyst, scholar, writer, and ex-public servant with a multifaceted academic and professional background. Holding a PhD in Management and currently pursuing a second doctorate in Public Administration, Dr. Ken-Joof is deeply committed to advancing knowledge in governance, leadership, and organizational dynamics. With a bachelor’s degree in political science and English, a master’s degree in International Affairs and Security Management, and ongoing studies in Political Psychology, his expertise spans the intersections of politics, psychology, and public policy. He has a unique ability to blend analytical rigor with eloquent storytelling.
